Copa do Mundo started today, here is my preview of the black belt divisions

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September 03, 2010, 07:02:23 AM

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[bjj4life]

The Copa do Mundo kicked off today with white belts and blue belts.  The black belts will start on Saturday, with the regular weight divisions and Sunday will be the black belt absolute along with the finals of each division.  Since I know a lot about the competition and I don't have anything else to do (because I am sick) I thought I would make a little breakdown of each weight division and how I see the absolute going.  I used the list of competitors on the cbjjo website, so if someone gets in the tournament with a late registration than I don't have their name down.

Galo
Last year's champion was Gabriel Moraes and he was not on the competitors list, so that makes Samuel Braga last years runner up and last years mundial champion from Erick Wanderley's is my favorite.  Other notables in that division are Felipe Costa (Brasa - 2003 Mundial Champion), Rafael Barros (Nova Uniao - last year he placed third), and the Japenese Toshiyuki Kaburagi (last year's runner up in the brown belt galo category).  This is tied with meio-pesado as the smallest black belt divsion with only 8 competitors.

Pluma
Last year's champion Ricardo Viera (Brasa) is my favorite.  This division also has the return of all of last years top placers: Bernardo Pitel (Nova Uniao - last year's runner up), Rodrigo Ranieri (he is also from Brasa - placed third last year), and Welckson Brito (Nova Uniao - placed third last year).  Either of these guys might be able to pull it out, but I doubt it I think Ricardo has this division locked.  Although last year's brown belt champion and Terere's cousin Leandro Martins (TT) might be able to surprise some people.  This division has 18 competitors.

Pena
Hard to pick a favorite in this category.  Even though last year's champ Ruben Charles (TT - upset Mario Reis last year) is in, Rani Yahya has also put his name down.  Rani hasn't really competed against any top competition with the gi since receiving his black belt, but he is very dominating at that weight and I am sure he is more than ready.  My favorite is Rani, but I won't be surprised if it goes to Ruben, or maybe Felipe Vidal (Brasa - last year's runner up), Reinaldo Ribeiro (Brasa - consistent top guy at that weight for awhile), or even Jonatas Gurgel (Nova Uniao - last year's brown belt champ).  Armando Guedes (Nova Uniao - done very well at pluma), Marcelino Freitas (Nova Uniao - also very competitive in this division), and Bruno Frazato (BTT - this years Brasiliero champ) might turn some heads as well.  This division has 24 competitors, making it the second largest division.

Leve
This division has been dominated by Nova Uniao for years, particularly Leo Santos.  Leo has pretty much retired from gi competition to focus on MMA so he will not be competing this year.  I think this division will probably be the most exciting and it also has the most possibilities.  The two other top dogs from Nova Uniao at that weight are still in, Rodrigo Feijao and Eduardo Pessoa.  Other big names in that division are Mario Reis (former pena champion), Celso Vinicius (last years mundial champion but lost to Pessoa at the copa last year), and Alexandre Pimentel (this years Brasiliero champ).  Brasa has a pretty strong team at that weight as well and Carlos Portuguese is also in this division.  I think Nova Uniao will still dominate and I predict Rodrigo Feijao will close it out with Dudu Pessoa.  I think Reis is too small and Celsino and  Pimentel won't be enough either.  This division is the biggest with 29 competitors

I need to rest my brain for a second I will be back with the rest ...

[bjj4life]

Medio
This division also has quite a few tough guys, but I think Andre Galvao will take this division convincingly.  Gustavo Campos beat him last year in the finals, but I think Andre won't make the same mistake twice.  Other top guys in there are Flavio Serafin (BTT- done well at this weight), Leonardo Pecanha (Nova Uniao top guy), and Fabio Trindade (Monteiro - placed second at this year's Brasiliero one division higher).  This division has 13 competitors and without Marcelo Garcia or Terere this division is a lot less exciting.

Meio Pesado
This division is also lacking some of it's top stars.  Ronaldo Jacare is focusing on MMA and I guess Demain Maia is resting for the mundials because I didn't see his name either.  Hard to say who the favorite is since no one in the division is a returning champ.  Top names are Romulo Barral (tough up and comer who won the Brasiliero this year and was very dominate as a brown belt), Marcel Louzado (strategic fighter from Brasa who is very boring but hard to beat), and Ricardo Bastos (tough guy from Nova Uniao who usually competes at medio).  My pick is Romulo, I think he will have a hard time with Marcel Louzado, but he is very game and has a lot of confidince since submitting Demian at the Brasiliero.

Pesado
This is the division I would have been competing in so all these guys are lucky ...  Anyways this division has all the big stars in it with Xande Ribeiro, Margarida, Braulio Estima, and Lucio Lagarto.  Everyone is pretty familiar with these guys so I won't introduce them.  I don't see how it could come down to anybody else but these guys as the top 4 in this division.  My pick is Xande Ribeiro not just because he is my teammate but also because he has beat all the other guys.  He does have however very close losses to Braulio and Margarida.  Honestly anything can happen in this division, a lot will have to do with the bracket and who is on.  I hope that Braulio and Margarida will go at it because I think that will be a nice match.  I also predict that these same 4 guys will all battle each other again on Sunday in the absolute.  This division only has 10 competitors but arguably 3 of the best guys pound for pound.

Super Pesado
Once again another division missing some top talent but gaining some others.  Missing Comprido, Roberto Tozzi, and Xande (moved down to his natural weight pesado) gaining Robert Drysdale.  Besides from Drysdale the only other notable names are Bruno Bastos and Roberto Abreu both Nova Uniao competitors.  Drysdale is definitely my favorite and I think he will have it pretty easy against this competition.  Not so easy at the mundials though because of Roger.  This division has 13 competitors.

Pesadissimo
This division is one of the pesadissimo tournaments I've seen in a long time.  Usually this division is kind of boring, but with many former champions competing it will be very interesting to see what happens.  You have Pe de Pano, Marcio Corletta, Leo Leite, and Ze Mario Esfiha, all very decorated competitors. With Pe de Pano not competing with the gi since he got dominated by Margarida I am picking Leo Leite to be my favorite.  He is last years champion defeating Gabriel Napao and he won both his weight and absolute at the Copa do Brasil this year.  I think he is too strong and his judo is too good.  This division has 15 competitors. 

back soon with my absolute picks

[Eric Burdo]

Thanks for the write-up!   

[bjj4life]

The absolute has many factors that play into it, the two biggest being how the bracket is done and who is tired from competing in their division.  It is hard to say who all will do the absolute, but if you take the top guys who usually do the absolute it could look something like this:

Andre Galvao
Romulo Barral
Marcel Louzado
Xande Ribeiro
Margarida
Braulio Estima
Lucio Lagarto
Robert Drysdale
Bruno Bastos
Pe de Pano
Leo Leite

It is really really hard to say who will win the absolute and the fact that I don't have the bracket makes it even harder.  My pick is Xande Ribeiro a little biased, but he is the returning champ.  The man who could surprise everybody is Leo Leite, he is the biggest and strongest guy with the best judo.  The other guys who have a really strong chance at being number one are Margarida, Braulio, and Pe de Pano.  Out of those guys I think Braulio has the best chance to be in the finals.

I hope everyone has enjoyed reading my point of view.  Please feel free to comment on my picks and make yours.

Rafael Lovato Jr.

[AWSolis]

Awesome insider's view!!

Alvis

[i'm very poor]

wonderful post
thanks



jeff1arm

[Gumby]

Awesome write up Rafael (I was going to call you about writing one up as well)... I like Xande in the Absolute as well, but wonder if competing in both tournaments isn't going to make it harder to win the Mundials, (with Roger competing in just one).  Odd to see the Barra guys in this one. 

[Vinicius "Pezao" Magalhaes]

I would like to see our names there Bro  ... 

that's sucks....

[ThePipeLayer]

Cool write up ! Thanks.

[wen]

nice write up. thanks!

[FWpodcast]

wow! awesome! thanks! 

[HPF]

thanks

[bjj4life]

I am glad everyone appreciates the breakdown, please add some more commentary to my picks.

I forgot that at the Copa do Mundo they have a lightweight absolute.  I think Rodrigo Feijao and Dudu Pessoa will close that out as well.

The purple belts are going at it today, I am waiting to hear how a couple of my students did.

[HPF]

what about Bibiano Fernandez

[Yemaso Yankee]

GREAT writeup!!! Thanks Rafael!